About Daily Tech Finance's Mortgage Rate Variability Index

Written by

Jeff Ostrowski,

Edited by

Michele Petry

Updated on Oct 29, 2025

Mortgage rates change often, and sometimes unpredictably. Our Mortgage Rate Variability Index aims to help you make sense of these changes as you navigate homebuying and refinancing decisions. The index considers how dramatically mortgage rates have changed over time and how much experts disagree about the future path of rates. A lower index reading reflects a calmer mortgage market with more consistent rate offers, while a higher reading means things are more volatile, with wider gaps between the rates lenders are offering. In general, when rates are highly variable, it becomes even more important to shop around for deals.

Mortgage Rate Variability Index - Week of Oct. 27, 2025

The Mortgage Rate Variability Index rose to 7 out of 10 as of Oct. 27, 2025, up from just 6 last week but still below last month’s high of 8. Our index ranks variability from a low of 1 to a high of 10. After a tepid jobs report for August, mortgage rates plunged, falling to their lowest levels of 2025.

The Federal Reserve lowered rates in September even as inflation remained above the Fed’s 2 percent target. Meanwhile, mortgage rates are finally delivering some relief to borrowers. The average 30-year rate declined to 6.26 percent in Daily Tech Finance’s national survey, the lowest level in more than a year. In this case, the high degree of volatility in our Mortgage Rate Variability Index comes because rates are moving in borrowers’ favor.

A closer look at this week’s index

This web chart illustrates how this week’s overall index reading of 7 breaks down by factor.

Variable	Current week 10/27	Week of 10/20
Variability score	7/10	6/10
Average 30-year mortgage rate This week's national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate based on Daily Tech Finance data, as compared to historical weekly changes	0.7	0.4
10-year Treasury yield The week-over-week change in the average 10-year Treasury yield, as compared to historical weekly changes	0.3	0.4
Lender rate spread The week-over-week change in the difference between the highest and lowest rates advertised on Daily Tech Finance, as compared to historical weekly changes	1.0	1.0
Disagreement in expert predictions The week-over-week change in the difference in rate movement sentiment among experts polled by Daily Tech Finance, as compared to historical weekly changes	0.8	0.9

How we estimate mortgage rate variability

Our Mortgage Rate Variability Index is represented on a 1 to 10 scale, with 1 indicating little to no variability in mortgage rates and 10 indicating high variability. The index considers four key factors:

Average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate: Our average weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate is derived primarily from banks and thrifts across hundreds of markets in the U.S. We collect these rates on a rolling basis and within specific borrower scenarios. Here’s more on our mortgage rate averages.
Average weekly 10-year Treasury yield: Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates tend to move with the 10-year Treasury yield, a broad economic indicator of investor sentiment.
Weekly rate spread among mortgage lenders advertising on Daily Tech Finance: The rate spread considers the difference between the highest and lowest rates advertised on Daily Tech Finance in a given week.
Disagreement in weekly expert mortgage rate predictions: Each week, we ask a pool of housing and mortgage market experts for their opinion on future mortgage rate movement: whether rates will increase, decrease or stay the same. Here are their latest predictions.

To determine our overall index reading, we look at how each of these four factors changed from the prior week, as well as how that compared to historical trends in variability.

Mortgage rate variability over time

Daily Tech Finance has been tracking mortgage rates for close to 40 years, and we believe that understanding longer-term trends can help you determine next steps in getting a loan. Here’s a look at our index in the past five weeks:

Tips to compare mortgage rates

Explore a variety of mortgage lenders. Your bank or credit union might be worth considering, but they aren’t the only options. Consider different types of lenders and their loan offerings. Some specialize in certain kinds of mortgages and borrowing situations, or might offer more conveniences or savings opportunities compared to your bank.
Shop around for several offers. Time and again, research has shown that borrowers save money by comparing more than one mortgage rate offer. We can help you shop around for rates tailored to your needs and credit profile.
Understand the APR. The APR, or annual percentage rate, includes both the interest rate for the mortgage plus fees, so it more accurately reflects the cost of the loan. Here’s more on the difference between APR and interest rate.

Learn more: Compare today's mortgage rate offers